Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Bringing businesses to rural Asia: What is working and what is not


SVRK Prabhakar, Senior Policy Researcher, Natural Resource Management Division, IGES, Japan
To be published in Business i. Eneco, March 2012

Asia is one of the fastest growing regions in the world, both in economic and population terms. In 2010, the economies in the region have grown at a rate of 8.2% while the rest of the world grew only at a rate of 5%. This story appears to be phenomenal by any standard. However, examining the role of rural Asia in contributing to the overall growth will reveal a different picture to us. The contribution of agriculture sector to the total GDP has been declining over the years in the region, standing at 10% in 2010. This means that nearly 58% of Asian population, of which 81% is dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, that lives in rural areas contribute to only 10% of the total wealth produced in the region. This appears to be, by any standard, a gross mismanagement of valuable human resources in any corporate firm’s strategy book. As a result, rural Asia is characterized by highest unemployment rate, high poverty and resource-deprived.

The organized private sector employs 30-35% of the total work force in many ASEAN countries, which is second only to the unorganized agriculture sector putting government at third as an employer and similar trend could be expected in other Asian countries too. However, the penetration of organized private sector in rural Asia is almost negligent due to limited purchasing power in these areas and limited manpower that can cater to the services offered by the sector. Most governments in the region operate with limited financial resources and cannot offer gainful employment to rural population. This further leaves the rural areas out of mainstream economic activities and hence often don’t attract corporate attention for investments.

Reasons behind poor wealth creation in rural Asia

Several issues play a role in poor contribution of rural areas to the total wealth created in the region and most often these issues are interlinked with each other as in daisy chain. Some important issues include wide prevalence of manual- labor oriented agricultural production systems that engage only seasonal employment, poor infrastructure facilities such as energy and transportation, high poverty and most importantly the lack of educational and vocational training facilities that can produce the talent for the needy industrial production and service sectors. One important argument that explains the existence of these problems is the ‘growth-center approach’ adopted by many countries as a developmental model wherein developmental investments are often concentrated at a single or few locations in an administrative unit. Though this approach has helped in developing certain regions as industrial hubs and eventually urban growth centers, the rest of the areas were deprived of the talent with the talent available in rural areas migrating to these ‘growth-centers’ as internal migration and brain drain. Though the growth-center approach is expected to be undertaken at the initial phases of development and to be supported by income distribution policies, it is the later part that has failed in most Asian countries. As a result, much of the rural areas were deprived of the talent and other resources. This has continued over the years taking the rural Asia in a downward spiral depriving them of their fair share in the overall economic growth story of Asia.


Strategies for greater business penetration in rural areas

The situation in rural Asia is changing, though, as suggested by recent developments. Realizing the potential of rural markets for untapped markets (read consumers) and source of human resources, the private sector is devising new strategies to reach out to these areas. One example to be cited is the Grameenphone in Bangladesh. Grameenphone has achieved a 98% of coverage area in Bangladesh with 35 million subscriber base within few years of its establishment. For most people, Grameenphone is a telecommunication revolution while very few know that it created record revenue and employment from predominantly poor and rural subscriber base. Grameenphone has become a source of livelihood for more than 300,000 people (working as its dealers, retailers, scratch card outlets, vendors etc) in a country of 149 million while producing a revenue worth one billion dollars per year (a per capita income of 6.7 USD by Grameenphone itself). Such cases suggest several lessons for other corporate ventures that consider capturing potential rural markets in Asia. Technology ventures need to make products affordable for rural population, make them within the reach of technical and educational abilities of the rural consumers, design secondary services that provide local gainful employment, and stress the need for wider social benefits apart from the intended direct benefit of the product.

A multi-utility vehicle using water pump. Sustaining local innovations would be one of the greatest role that corporate sector can play in rural Asia.

The public-private partnerships are enabling the greater corporate penetration in rural Asia. In South Asia, self-help groups are being formed to utilize these emerging development opportunities. Micro-finance in Bangladesh and installation of bioenergy production plants in India can be taken as examples for this wherein financial institutions and energy technology firms work with local governments to support micro-finance schemes and installation of bioenergy based power plants. Here too, designing products and services simple and affordable has enabled rural consumers to accept them at a rapid rate. Combining capacity building programs along with product introduction is helping rural artisans to take up new income generation activities associated with the products being introduced. For example, as a part of the rural electrification program through solar power panels, technology firms and local NGOs are training rural artisans in assembling and repairing solar panels and servicing batteries. These approaches are creating an entirely new local economy that is supplementing the agriculture income in most rural areas. However, more could be done to further hasten the rural economic growth. Ideas such as ‘Pura’ (Provision of Urban Amenities in Rural Areas) put forward by Dr A.P.J Abdul Kalam, the President of India, have even greater potential to kick-start rural economies. Seen as an overarching concept, ‘Pura’ encourages greater public private partnerships between Gram Panchayats (lowest tier of self governance system in India) and private sector for developing urban amenities and advanced infrastructure such as warehouses, integrated business hubs, in rural areas while enhancing the rural income and skill base. There is even more potential for rural employment generation through schemes such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), ecotourism and soil carbon sequestration wherein local communities can get benefit from related payments and from the employment generated through these activities while safeguarding the environment. 

To be published in Business i. Eneco, March 2012

Friday, November 25, 2011

My performance in lecturing students

This is a long pending task I just managed to finish & put on the blog! Sorry, this entry is not about climate change but my performance in communicating the message of climate change to the graduate and post-graduate students at Nagoya University!

I have been a visiting lecturer at Nagoya University at the Nagoya University Global Environmental Leaders Program for the last two years. I was asked to teach graduate and post-graduate students on the topic of climate change and developing countries. The class consisted of mixed nationalities with most of them are from Asian and European countries. The total strength of the class was 35.

As I do with most other things I do, I requested the students to evaluate my lecture using 20 indicators (See Table below) consisting of 4 on students, 8 on the content and 8 on content delivery on 1-5 scale where 1  means bad and 5 means excellent. This evaluation was not the standard part of my TOR to the course but was done on my initiative.

Some quick observations from the evaluation:

I couldn't analyze the responses for long time. Just got some time to do it and I am surprised to see that most  students have rated my lecture on level 4 or 5 on most indicators. Below is the figure showing the results. The ones rated 3 are mostly for indicators related to the students self evaluation of their English understanding skills and prior knowledge on the subject.
  • Most indicators stayed the same in both years. However, there was an improvement in indicators of audibility and organization of the lecture delivery from the first year to the second year.
  • Most students have rated 4 or 5 on various indicators related to the lecture content and delivery.
  • Most students rated 3 or 4 for their English skills and their prior knowledge on the subject.
  • Most commented that I talk too fast and don't give time to imbibe concepts (one expression that particularly caught my attention was 'WOW he is too fast').
  • Few complained that I used too many slides with figures and I explain figures too fast.
  • The students who said the topic was new to them rated my lecture as difficult to understand.
  • The students who rated their prior knowledge on the subject as good have rated my lecture as good to excellent.
  • Very few students with excellent English skills have rated my lecture as average. Most of these students thought I should have spent more time in explaining concepts.
  • On overall, most students thought they learning was either good or excellent from the lecture. 


Figure: Rating distribution of students on various indicators of the lecture.

Table: Indicator list used for evaluation of the lecture.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Fitting the Radiation Safety Piece into the Jigsaw Puzzle: Restoring Agriculture and Food Sector Aftermath the Great Tohoku Disaster


Time and Date: 1-5PM on 8th November 2011. Venue: Room #801, Kokukaikan, Tokyo
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan


For general participants: please get in touch at prabhakar@iges.or.jp or call if you wish to register your attendance in this event.

The Great Tohoku Earthquake that occurred on 11th March 2011 is the most powerful earthquake in the known history of Japan. A chain of events unfolded after the earthquake that included a tsunami of historical magnitude that damaged critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants located in Fukushima leading to release of unknown quantities of nuclear radiation into the environment. As a consequence of these series of events, lives of more than 25,000 people were lost, many went missing, and hundreds and thousands were displaced into various prefectures of Japan. Though Japan is known for its advanced earthquake and tsunami risk mitigation measures, these events have clearly overwhelmed the national and prefectural administration leading to a national emergency that is still unfolding.
Subsequently, many policy makers and disaster risk reduction specialist in Japan and abroad have been focused on how to rehabilitate the displaced people and how to reconstruct the affected areas. The national and affected prefectural governments have put in place several measures for rescue, rehabilitation, compensation, and reconstruction in the affected areas. Amidst all these discussions and developments, one aspect seemed didn’t not get much attention as much as it deserves i.e. the radiation safety aftermath of damage to nuclear power plants in Fukushima. The release of unknown quantities of radiation into environment has several implications in terms of health safety of citizens even beyond the disaster affected areas, mistrust on Japanese exports, delayed rehabilitation in areas with high radiation exposure, demand for imported food, and implications in terms of economic growth for a country whose economy primarily depends on exports.
This raises important questions that need immediate answers from the perspective of civil society and disaster risk reduction professionals: what radiation related issues are faced by the civil society, how food safety regulations in Japan consider radiation contamination, what specific limitations are posed by the radiation for speedy disaster recovery, and what it all means for the resilience of the Japanese society as a whole? These are also the questions that the civil society in Japan is interested to know answers for, as evident from several discussion boards and networks that have emerged on Internet. This informal event aims to address these questions in a greater detail with an objective of finding way forward. This initiative is funded by the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) through the project CRP2010-02CMY-Pereira.
Contact: prabhakar@iges.or.jp; +81-80-5631-0541

Agenda

13:00  Welcome remarks                                                         SVRK Prabhakar
13:05  Session I: Rehabilitation of food and agriculture in Japan post-Fukushima
>The impact of Fukushima event on food and agriculture and measures for it [Mr.Toshihiko TAKEMOTO, PRIMAFF
>The impact of low concentration radiation on food in Japan [Mr.Seiichi Oshita ]
>The radioactivity found under cooperative work of agriculture [Ms. Tomoko M. Nakanishi, University of Tokyo]
>Consumers’ voice and activities of Pal-System for food contaminated by radiation [Mr.Michimoto MATSUMOTO, COOP, Japan]
>People’s  voice and activities to ensure food safety from radiation [Ms.Setsuko YASUDA, Vision 21]
14:25  Session II:
 Managing radiation hazard: Information management and linking civil and nuclear administration  
>Health safety post Fukushima: Study findings from radiation doses in education institutions: [Mr.TSUZI Masayoshi]
>Information of radiation and civil society[Mr.Mikio NAKAYAMA]
>Presentations from Disaster Risk Management Professionals [Prof Hari Srinivas]
15:25  Coffee Break:  
15:40  Session III: Citizens Charter: Civil Society Perspectives  
>Citizens perspective: Antonio Portela
>Issues and experience from Network I: Pieter FRANKEN, Safecast
>Issues and experience from Network II: David Sidney Moore, Tokyo Kids and Radiation
16:40  Session IV: 
Discussion on implications of Fukushima on the resilience of Japan and policy suggestions
>Open Discussion among all participants

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Implications of Fukushima on the resilience of Japan


The Great Tohoku Earthquake that occurred on 11th March 2011 is the most powerful earthquake in the known history of Japan and definitely a major catastrophe that Japan has to deal after the second world war. A chain of events unfolded after the earthquake that included a tsunami of historical magnitude that damaged critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants located in Fukushima leading to release of unknown quantities of nuclear radiation into the environment. As a consequence of these series of events, lives of more than 25,000 people were lost, many went missing, and hundreds and thousands were displaced into various prefectures of Japan. Though Japan is known for its advanced earthquake and tsunami risk mitigation measures, these events have clearly overwhelmed the national and prefectural administration leading to a national emergency that is still unfolding.

Subsequently, many policy makers and disaster risk reduction specialist in Japan and abroad have been focused on how to rehabilitate the displaced people and how to reconstruct the affected areas. The national and affected prefectural governments have put in place several measures for rescue, rehabilitation, compensation, and reconstruction in the affected areas. Amidst all these discussions and developments, one aspect seemed didn’t not get much attention as much as it deserves i.e. the radiation safety aftermath of damage to nuclear power plants in Fukushima. The release of unknown quantities of radiation into environment has several implications in terms of health safety of citizens even beyond the disaster affected areas, mistrust on Japanese exports, delayed rehabilitation in areas with high radiation exposure, demand for imported food, and implications in terms of economic growth for a country whose economy primarily depends on exports.
This raises important questions that need immediate answers from the perspective of civil society and disaster risk reduction professionals: what radiation related issues are faced by the civil society, how food safety regulations in Japan consider radiation contamination, what specific limitations are posed by the radiation for speedy disaster recovery, and what it all means for the resilience of the Japanese society as a whole? These are also the questions that the civil society in Japan is interested to know answers for, as evident from several discussion boards and networks that have emerged on Internet.

Resilience of Japan:

Japan is known for the resilience it has shown by emerging as a stronger state each and every time it is hit by  major catastrophe in the past, let it be a man made (i.e. second world war, or dealing with environmental pollution within its boarders) or natural (e.g. Kobe earthquake).

From the point of Tohoku and Fukushima events, both positive examples (e.g. on the way the local communities and businesses dealt with event) and not so positive ones (e.g. on the way the governments fell apart in reaching a consensus on what can be done and how best can be done as represented by civil movement in the country). It seems to show that there is a lot of factors that are playing at the local level to make them resilient which doesnt seem to reflect at the larger level of governance (say at the level of elected leadership either at prefecture or national level). This conclusion could be baseless since my understanding of events happening around in Japan are far from close due to language barrier and as some say due to the state control of media. Nevertheless, there is a need to look into the factors that play into this confused state of affairs. Any leads on how to go forward on this? 

Thursday, October 20, 2011

GMS Countries and Early Warning Systems in the Context of Food-Water-energy Nexus


Suggested citation: Prabhakar, S.V.R.K. 2011. Climate Risks to Agriculture/Food Security in the GMS Countries and Early Warning Systems in the Context of Food-Water-energy Nexus. International Conference on GMS 2020: Balancing Economic Growth and  Environmental Sustainability, 2011, 15 - 16 November 2011, Hotel Plaza Athénée, Bangkok. Working Group on Environment (WGE) and Asian  Development Bank (ADB).

Abstract:


The Greater Mekong Subregion has undergone a rapid economic growth over the past decade with positive impacts on the human development and negative impacts on the environment and natural resources. The growing demand for energy in the region and high fuel prices during 2008 has seen several countries declaring ambitious biofuel strategies from which they retreated covertly later on. This has set a debate on nexus between food, water, and energy in the region. Though the biofuels fever has died down sooner than expected, there are chances for reemergence of debate over food-water-energy due to several traditional and non-traditional pressures discussed in this paper that include increasing energy demand, population growth, urbanization, changing life styles, and climate change. Early warning systems can play a crucial role in averting situations like 2008 fuel and food prices. However, there are several bottlenecks to be overcome that include lack of infrastructure and capacity for implementing such EWS. In addition to EWS, this paper discusses some traditional off-the-shelf policies such as general improvement in resource use efficiency in agriculture, water and energy sector, increasing energy supply through renewable sources, and creating a East-Asian Energy Community or a grid that could ease the food-water-fuel nexus in the region to a greater extent. 

Some Excerpts from the Above Paper:

An Early Warning System (EWS) in the context of food-water-energy nexus can be defined as a collection of dependent and independent variables that lead to detection and assessment of impending problem based on feedback connections operating between demand and supply of food, water and energy. A EWS can be as simple as that of a collection of indicators that can provide an early warning to the policy makers and other development planners operating at various levels. It can also be as complex as that of employing dynamic simulation models that can quantitatively represent the real world based on the conditions defined/assumed within the model (the system). A recent example of EWSs for policy decisions can be the EU proposal for building an EWS for energy that simulates the supply and demand situation in the region (European Union, 2009), which includes early warning for long-term energy conditions as well as to handle short supply in oil in short-time scales.

An effective EWS can be built using dynamic simulation models since they can consider the element of time and related dynamics in determining the status of outcomes that could be useful to the policy makers. The use of simulation models in the public policy research is not new. Some examples include:

·         The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) has provided good tool in understanding environment and economics into a single framework.
·         The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) has provided a tool to simulate the impact of climate change on natural environment and socio-economics the Asia-Pacific region.
·         Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been used for understanding the economy-wide impacts of policies.
·         Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models have been employed to understand and forecast material flows across different regions.
All the above simulation models are largely used for research purposes that have partially contributed to development of policies rather than for providing real-time early warning for policy purposes. Partially, this could be attributed to the limited understanding of natural, socio-economic and institutional systems.

2.1. Prerequisites for development of an EWS

Development of EWS is dependent on various factors related to the system in question and it has to do with how best the EWS can represent the real world.

Determinants of an effective EWS:
  •  How the system is defined (what components a system constitutes),
  • Understanding of relationships and feedback connections operating between different actors/components of the system,
  • The precision with which these dynamic and static forces are quantified and represented in the model, and
  •  Interpretation of the outcomes of the model as against what it actually mean with implications for the institutions that use the EWS for policy purposes.

2.2. What an EWS should be able to do?

The end result of developing the decision support system for early warning related to food-water-energy should be able to:

1.       visualize demand and supply situation of food, water and energy in the region on short- medium- and long-term basis,
2.       give projections on prices of food, water and energy on immediate and long-term basis so that countries can take preventive and proactive strategies,
3.       help policy makers at various levels to plan appropriate crops, water usage and water conservation practices and how energy is produced and consumed at the regional and national scales,
4.       help in appropriate allocation of resources for food and energy production while keeping in view several constraints such as environmental health, climate change, food prices, and sustainability of resources employed, and
5.       help develop a set of standard operational procedures to be invoked in the wake of a situation like 2008 energy and food crisis.

ContactFor an extended article, please contact the author....

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Rapid and integrated approach for measurement of wealth and health of individuals

I have been intensively thinking about integrated measurement systems for sustainability and related issues for the last several years and BANG here is a serendipitous solution I got: The details are on the picture! Please drop your thoughts on this.


<<This post is just a fun though it has some intellectual twist in it; so take it lightly and move on to my other serious posts on this blog>>



Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Drought Relief for Tangible and Intangible Benefits: A Study of Government Drought Relief Work in Some of the Drought-Prone States of India

India has a diverse set of geo and physiographic conditions typifying its size. Its diversity is also reflected through various kinds of disasters that the country is vulnerable to. For instance, it has been identified that nearly 57% of the land mass is prone to earthquakes, 12% prone to floods, 8% is vulnerable to tropical cyclones. All these disasters are categorized as sudden onset disasters as they seldom give sufficient time for the administration to react in advance such that the impacts could be minimized. This very basic characteristic, apparently, seems to bring these disasters to focus in media and elsewhere. However, slow onset disasters such as drought, which is expected to occur in different phases spanning meteorological drought to socio-economic drought, gives ample time for the administration to react to this disaster. The same characteristic of this disaster makes the communities to adapt to it over a period of time such that at a given point of time the communities stop looking at it as a threat to their immediate and long-term prospects.

India has faced number of drought years, ever since the meteorological data is available. Out of these years, few of them could be termed as severe to most severe droughts. The all-India drought of 2002 caused an agricultural income loss of Rs 39000 crores to the country. Such losses, which prove costly to the nation’s economy, can repeat in no time as it was observed in 2004. This tantamount to say that the drought risk of the nation is ever increasing and hence deserves concerted actions from all quarters of the society to thwart its negative impacts on the nation’s development.

For example, the latest all India drought of 2002 saw the country spending Rs 2013 crores from the Calamity Relief Fund (CRF), Rs 2201 crores from the National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF), and 87.36 MTs of foodgrains for relief employment under special SGRY. The country also spent huge amount of resources for transporting water and fodder by rail up to 30th June 2003[1].

In addition, the country has been spending considerable amount of resources on long-term drought risk mitigation programs through watershed development programs. These watershed programs, either implemented by the government of India through its Drought Prone Areas Program (DPAP) or by various non-governmental organizations, either in isolation or in conjunction with the state and below level governments, produced different results across the country, ranging from absolute failure to superb success. However, the recurring droughts proved that the drought proofing is far from reality and the country has a lot to achieve in this area. Severe droughts have not spared even those areas covered under long-term drought mitigation such as DPAP.

While drought relief aims at providing quick relief to the affected communities, so that the life returns to normalcy, it has to be understood that often huge amount of money has been spent in a very short span of time. The bone of contention is whether all this expenditure has led to tangible and intangible benefits? It is worthwhile to know the answer to this question. The present study on drought relief for tangible and intangible benefits aims at understanding what kind of benefits were accrued to the communities through drought relief interventions such that a corrective course of action could be chalked out. The study had a broad objective of understanding the elements affected by drought, identifying the tangible and intangible benefits of drought relief and studying the existing drought relief mechanism at few locations such that the deficiencies are identified and rectified for a better drought relief management. For more details on the concept of the study, please refer to Annexure II.

Full report can be accessed from here: http://www.slideshare.net/svrkprabhakar/nidm-prabhakar-drought-relief-study-draft-final-report.

[1] Drought 2002. A Report. 2004. Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture.