Disaster Risk Reduction in a Shifting Climate

SVRK Prabhakar

1. What can you tell from recent typhoon in Philippine and Cyclone in India? Are there any commonalities and differences and why?

One of the ways of judging the efficacy of disaster risk reduction (DRR) systems of any country is to look at how the government and other stakeholders have responded to a disaster and the subsequent impacts in terms of lives lost and property destroyed. However, comparison of disasters in two countries would have to be made with more caution and require deeper analysis than what the numbers suggest on the surface since the efficacy of DRR measures could be vastly different within a country because the DRR is the primary responsibility of local governments which differ in their capacities, depending on the strength of the event in question and can vary at what time of the year and time of the day of landfall of the event etc. Table 1 provides a comparison of tropical cyclones Phailin that hit Odisha, India on 12 October 2013 and Haiyan that hit Eastern Visayas of Philippines on 8th November. The following observations explain the reasons behind severe damages from Haiyan: a) The typhoon Haiyan was unarguably the stronger typhoon and was at its peak strength when it made landfall, b) The short early warning period (the first early warning available for a stronger Haiyan was 5th November that forecasted a wind speed of 167 kmph while the IMD was able to track the cyclone Phailin 4-5 days before with a forecasted wind speed of 180 kmph), c) early landfall than expected, d) slower and insufficient evacuation measures before landfall of typhoon; also partly due to unwilling people to relocate, e) slow rescue and relief operations due to complete disruption of local government machinery depriving any support to the national government and non-governmental agencies, f) relatively poorer DRR measures due to insufficient financial investments arguably due to skewed political decision making.

Table: Comparison of cyclone Phailin and typhoon Haiyan

Parameter	Cyclone Phailin	Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)
Sustained maximum wind speed at landfall (kmph)	200-210[1]	235[2]
Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale[3]	Category 3-4	Category 4
Areas affected	Most of coastal Odisha and two Coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh	Central Philippines with maximum damage in Tacloban area
Last event of similar intensity	14 years	22 years
Time of landfall	22:30 hrs	4:40 hrs
Total deaths[4]	44	5759
Total affected	12 million	15 million
Number evacuated	1.5 million	1 million
Estimated total damage (billion USD)	0.7	2.4
Associated secondary disaster	Heavy rainfall and floods	Heavy rainfall and flood
Advance prediction of landfall and intensity	4-5 days	2-3   days

*Information, other than cited, was compiled from various web sources that can be easily traced using Google.

2. Can these recent extreme events be attributed to climate change? How can we make sense out of these?

The topic of attribution has its origin in perceptibly growing number of extreme events and related impacts. Attribution of any particular climatic event to climate change is the most difficult aspect of climate services and our understanding of climate system as a whole has not reached a point where the models employed can help us attribute certain climatic event to climate change with greater accuracy (Read Nature Editorial 19 December 2012). Irrespective of the purpose of attribution (e.g. climate negotiations), the emphasis on attribution may not yield as much value and usefulness compared to putting efforts on advanced early warning systems, strengthening dissemination and efficient application of early warning information for definitive actions on the ground. There is a sufficient agreement among climate researchers for high probability of extreme events in the future and there is a clear evidence for increasing number of extreme events historically. Despite this, there is certain difficulty in attributing the impacts on the ground to climate change for the reason that more and more people have been living in vulnerable areas putting them in the harm’s way than before. The rapid economic growth is only making this trend worse as more and more infrastructure is being constructed in vulnerable areas. Hence, understanding the dynamics of population growth and distribution and its interaction with the natural hazards assumes greater significance in understanding the observed impact trends and for achieving effective risk reduction.

Figure: While authorities were able to save thousands of lives, Phailin has left behind widespread devastation (Photo Courtesy: A. Shreekanth).

3) How government can prepare, nationally, internationally and locally, especially in the Asia Pacific Area?

Thanks to Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA) and subsequent efforts at national and international levels, more countries have some kind of disaster preparedness and response plans and strategies and hence the picture of DRR is far better today than a decade ago. Today, several countries in the region have national authorities, ministries and departments for focused action on DRR. As a result, national and local systems have become better in handling the disasters and cyclone Phailin provides an important evidence for it. The accurate early warning has triggered authorities to evacuate large number of people and hence were able to avert a major disaster. Even in the case of Philippines, despite the widespread criticism, the authorities did manage to evacuate nearly a million within the short period of time available to them. However, there is a lot to be achieved along the continuum of disaster management cycle in a rage of areas which includes strengthening early warning and educating the communities on the importance of heeding to early warning, establishing sufficient number of evacuation shelters, enforcing proper regulations (land use and urban plans) restricting spread of infrastructure in vulnerable areas and strengthening coordination and communication channels across ministries and stakeholders engaged in DRR. While post-disaster rescue and relief has been perfected over the years due to traditionally response oriented national systems, more can be done in better relief management and post-relief and reconstruction planning. DRR cannot be achieved without proper information to rely upon and disaster databases that assist in identifying vulnerable and channeling resources are to be strengthened. The loss and damage databases being established by UNDP are able to bridge this gap to a greater extent. Risk information coupled with strengthened disaster mitigation measures will pave the way for designing and implementing appropriate insurance programs that will reduce the burden on national exchequer and put the people in the driving seat of managing their risks. While these traditional measures are most needed, there is also need to embark upon prospective planning by taking into consideration the increasingly perfecting climate projections into planning processes. Taking up adaptive management practices will go a long way in adjusting the institutional and regulatory systems as our understanding on climate change improve. There is lot of synergy between DRR and climate change adaptation and the tools and strategies perfected by these communities could be mutually beneficial. Today there are more opportunities for these two communities to work together due to growing number of networks and epistemic groups operating in these areas. The discussions for post-2015 Hyogo Framework Action and the future climate regime under UNFCCC begin to provide impetus for this nexus to happen on the ground.

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[1] 3 minutes sustained, Cyclone Warning Division, Indian Meteorological Department, 2013

[2] 10 minutes sustained, Severe Weather Bulletin No 6, Philippine Met Agency, PAGASA

[3] There are several tropical cyclone classifications. Following IMD classification, the Cyclone Phailin is classified as Very Severe Cyclone Storm and Typhoon Haiyan as Super Cyclonic Storm.

[4] IMD for Phailin and UN OCHA for Haiyan

Bringing businesses to rural Asia: What is working and what is not

SVRK Prabhakar, Senior Policy Researcher, Natural Resource Management Division, IGES, Japan

To be published in Business i. Eneco, March 2012

Asia is one of the fastest growing regions in the world, both in economic and population terms. In 2010, the economies in the region have grown at a rate of 8.2% while the rest of the world grew only at a rate of 5%. This story appears to be phenomenal by any standard. However, examining the role of rural Asia in contributing to the overall growth will reveal a different picture to us. The contribution of agriculture sector to the total GDP has been declining over the years in the region, standing at 10% in 2010. This means that nearly 58% of Asian population, of which 81% is dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, that lives in rural areas contribute to only 10% of the total wealth produced in the region. This appears to be, by any standard, a gross mismanagement of valuable human resources in any corporate firm’s strategy book. As a result, rural Asia is characterized by highest unemployment rate, high poverty and resource-deprived.

The organized private sector employs 30-35% of the total work force in many ASEAN countries, which is second only to the unorganized agriculture sector putting government at third as an employer and similar trend could be expected in other Asian countries too. However, the penetration of organized private sector in rural Asia is almost negligent due to limited purchasing power in these areas and limited manpower that can cater to the services offered by the sector. Most governments in the region operate with limited financial resources and cannot offer gainful employment to rural population. This further leaves the rural areas out of mainstream economic activities and hence often don’t attract corporate attention for investments.

Reasons behind poor wealth creation in rural Asia

Several issues play a role in poor contribution of rural areas to the total wealth created in the region and most often these issues are interlinked with each other as in daisy chain. Some important issues include wide prevalence of manual- labor oriented agricultural production systems that engage only seasonal employment, poor infrastructure facilities such as energy and transportation, high poverty and most importantly the lack of educational and vocational training facilities that can produce the talent for the needy industrial production and service sectors. One important argument that explains the existence of these problems is the ‘growth-center approach’ adopted by many countries as a developmental model wherein developmental investments are often concentrated at a single or few locations in an administrative unit. Though this approach has helped in developing certain regions as industrial hubs and eventually urban growth centers, the rest of the areas were deprived of the talent with the talent available in rural areas migrating to these ‘growth-centers’ as internal migration and brain drain. Though the growth-center approach is expected to be undertaken at the initial phases of development and to be supported by income distribution policies, it is the later part that has failed in most Asian countries. As a result, much of the rural areas were deprived of the talent and other resources. This has continued over the years taking the rural Asia in a downward spiral depriving them of their fair share in the overall economic growth story of Asia.

Strategies for greater business penetration in rural areas

The situation in rural Asia is changing, though, as suggested by recent developments. Realizing the potential of rural markets for untapped markets (read consumers) and source of human resources, the private sector is devising new strategies to reach out to these areas. One example to be cited is the Grameenphone in Bangladesh. Grameenphone has achieved a 98% of coverage area in Bangladesh with 35 million subscriber base within few years of its establishment. For most people, Grameenphone is a telecommunication revolution while very few know that it created record revenue and employment from predominantly poor and rural subscriber base. Grameenphone has become a source of livelihood for more than 300,000 people (working as its dealers, retailers, scratch card outlets, vendors etc) in a country of 149 million while producing a revenue worth one billion dollars per year (a per capita income of 6.7 USD by Grameenphone itself). Such cases suggest several lessons for other corporate ventures that consider capturing potential rural markets in Asia. Technology ventures need to make products affordable for rural population, make them within the reach of technical and educational abilities of the rural consumers, design secondary services that provide local gainful employment, and stress the need for wider social benefits apart from the intended direct benefit of the product.

A multi-utility vehicle using water pump. Sustaining local innovations would be one of the greatest role that corporate sector can play in rural Asia.

The public-private partnerships are enabling the greater corporate penetration in rural Asia. In South Asia, self-help groups are being formed to utilize these emerging development opportunities. Micro-finance in Bangladesh and installation of bioenergy production plants in India can be taken as examples for this wherein financial institutions and energy technology firms work with local governments to support micro-finance schemes and installation of bioenergy based power plants. Here too, designing products and services simple and affordable has enabled rural consumers to accept them at a rapid rate. Combining capacity building programs along with product introduction is helping rural artisans to take up new income generation activities associated with the products being introduced. For example, as a part of the rural electrification program through solar power panels, technology firms and local NGOs are training rural artisans in assembling and repairing solar panels and servicing batteries. These approaches are creating an entirely new local economy that is supplementing the agriculture income in most rural areas. However, more could be done to further hasten the rural economic growth. Ideas such as ‘Pura’ (Provision of Urban Amenities in Rural Areas) put forward by Dr A.P.J Abdul Kalam, the President of India, have even greater potential to kick-start rural economies. Seen as an overarching concept, ‘Pura’ encourages greater public private partnerships between Gram Panchayats (lowest tier of self governance system in India) and private sector for developing urban amenities and advanced infrastructure such as warehouses, integrated business hubs, in rural areas while enhancing the rural income and skill base. There is even more potential for rural employment generation through schemes such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), ecotourism and soil carbon sequestration wherein local communities can get benefit from related payments and from the employment generated through these activities while safeguarding the environment. 

To be published in Business i. Eneco, March 2012

Drought Relief for Tangible and Intangible Benefits: A Study of Government Drought Relief Work in Some of the Drought-Prone States of India

India has a diverse set of geo and physiographic conditions typifying its size. Its diversity is also reflected through various kinds of disasters that the country is vulnerable to. For instance, it has been identified that nearly 57% of the land mass is prone to earthquakes, 12% prone to floods, 8% is vulnerable to tropical cyclones. All these disasters are categorized as sudden onset disasters as they seldom give sufficient time for the administration to react in advance such that the impacts could be minimized. This very basic characteristic, apparently, seems to bring these disasters to focus in media and elsewhere. However, slow onset disasters such as drought, which is expected to occur in different phases spanning meteorological drought to socio-economic drought, gives ample time for the administration to react to this disaster. The same characteristic of this disaster makes the communities to adapt to it over a period of time such that at a given point of time the communities stop looking at it as a threat to their immediate and long-term prospects.

India has faced number of drought years, ever since the meteorological data is available. Out of these years, few of them could be termed as severe to most severe droughts. The all-India drought of 2002 caused an agricultural income loss of Rs 39000 crores to the country. Such losses, which prove costly to the nation’s economy, can repeat in no time as it was observed in 2004. This tantamount to say that the drought risk of the nation is ever increasing and hence deserves concerted actions from all quarters of the society to thwart its negative impacts on the nation’s development.

For example, the latest all India drought of 2002 saw the country spending Rs 2013 crores from the Calamity Relief Fund (CRF), Rs 2201 crores from the National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF), and 87.36 MTs of foodgrains for relief employment under special SGRY. The country also spent huge amount of resources for transporting water and fodder by rail up to 30th June 2003[1].

In addition, the country has been spending considerable amount of resources on long-term drought risk mitigation programs through watershed development programs. These watershed programs, either implemented by the government of India through its Drought Prone Areas Program (DPAP) or by various non-governmental organizations, either in isolation or in conjunction with the state and below level governments, produced different results across the country, ranging from absolute failure to superb success. However, the recurring droughts proved that the drought proofing is far from reality and the country has a lot to achieve in this area. Severe droughts have not spared even those areas covered under long-term drought mitigation such as DPAP.

While drought relief aims at providing quick relief to the affected communities, so that the life returns to normalcy, it has to be understood that often huge amount of money has been spent in a very short span of time. The bone of contention is whether all this expenditure has led to tangible and intangible benefits? It is worthwhile to know the answer to this question. The present study on drought relief for tangible and intangible benefits aims at understanding what kind of benefits were accrued to the communities through drought relief interventions such that a corrective course of action could be chalked out. The study had a broad objective of understanding the elements affected by drought, identifying the tangible and intangible benefits of drought relief and studying the existing drought relief mechanism at few locations such that the deficiencies are identified and rectified for a better drought relief management. For more details on the concept of the study, please refer to Annexure II.

Full report can be accessed from here: http://www.slideshare.net/svrkprabhakar/nidm-prabhakar-drought-relief-study-draft-final-report.

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[1] Drought 2002. A Report. 2004. Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture.